Broker Check

Outlooks

2022 Outlook 

2021 started on relatively solid footing following the tumult offered up in 2020. During the first quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 increased by 6.2%, while the NASDAQ and Dow registered gains of 3.0% and 8.3%, respectively. Most bond indices were down through the first 90 days of 2021, led lower by longer-duration government bonds, as the 10Yr U.S. Treasury (10Yr TSY) backed-up1 by over 80bps (0.8%) to 1.74%. Over the past 18 months, U.S. policymakers took unparalleled actions to resuscitate a faltering global economy through slashing interest rates and unprecedented quantitative easing. However, we believe the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unintentionally painted itself into a corner. Read more about our views herein.


2021 Mid-Year Update 

Our 2021 Outlook, entitled “Hope Over Despair,” outlined our prologue for a post-COVID world. And thus far through 2021, our optimistic stance has triumphed over our doubts and fears. While quite a few of our prognostications are coming to fruition, we were surprised about how several economic and capital market trends evolved. In hindsight, the unprecedented circumstances surrounding a global pandemic changed our present and future in unexpected ways. Read more about our views herein.


2021 Outlook 

2020 will be remembered as a seminal year that challenged humanity's compassion, ingenuity, resolve, and tolerance. However, with all the despair and divisiveness, hope was provided through several highly effective vaccination prospects and therapeutics. Despite all the carnage caused by COVID 19 during 2020, the S&P provided investors with a total return of over 18%. However, unlike 2019, which we coined as the year of the "everything rally," capital market performance was more discerning. COVID 19 and the ensuing global recession ended the 129th consecutive month of economic expansion here in the U.S. and the 132nd month of an equity bull market. But we believe we are on the precipice of a new cycle, supported by pent-up consumer demand, positive vaccination/therapeutic trends, additional COVID and government stimulus (including potential for local and municipal funding), and unprecedented central bank/FOMC support. Read more about our views herein.


2020 Outlook

2019 was the year of the “everything rally.” Investors’ fear of missing out (FOMO) combined with there is no other alternative (TINA) has helped offset the 4Q18 sell-off. The geopolitical outlook remains uncertain and poses a significant risk to any economic and capital market outlook going forward. While the current capital market and economic cycle seem extended from a historical perspective, most sell-side analysts, strategists, and portfolio managers believe there is still room for markets to run. However, we see economic cracks forming, and fear the unintended consequences for capital markets associated with near-zero global short rates. Read more about our views herein.